Bitcoin��s ��moment of truth�� is upon us, says technical analyst

The mid-July rally in bitcoin is showing signs of petering out. Since hitting a one-month high on July 24, bitcoin as surrendered more than 10%, taking the wind out of the sails of those who had their sights on $10,000 and beyond.

The momentum-killer came with the second rejection of a bitcoin-related exchange-traded-fund submitted by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. However, it would be a big mistake to write off the chances just yet, says one market analyst.

��Investors are highly underestimating that if bitcoin futures can trade on a major exchange, then an ETF can,�� said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K. ��It��s a huge blunder if they can��t see it coming.��

Read: These may be the 3 biggest hurdles to a bitcoin ETF

The price of a single bitcoin BTCUSD, +2.35% was last valued at $7,503.60, down 2.5% since Tuesday 5 p.m. Eastern Time on the Kraken exchange.

Read: A total collapse in bitcoin is a real possibility, says Nobel Prize��winning economist Krugman

Moment of truth for bitcoin after yet another failure at its 200-day MA

As it did in May, the 200-day moving average, a closely watched long-term momentum indicator, is providing formidable resistance for the No. 1 digital currency. As Rob Sluymer, technical strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors notes, the level coincides with another popular technical indicator. ��In the very short-term BTC, is likely at a pullback/pause point at resistance level coinciding with a 61.8% retracement of the May-June downtrend just below the May 20 highs and near the declining 200-dma,�� he said.

After yet another failure at the key indicator, Sluymer said bitcoin is facing a ��moment of truth�� as it trades near support at $7,400.

The last time bitcoin failed at its 200-day moving average it dropped more than 40% in seven weeks.

Ripple outperforming other altcoins

Ripple is the only major altcoin, smaller coins other than bitcoin, showing gains Wednesday, with a single XRP coin XRPUSD, +2.04% trading 3.2% higher at 45 cents.

Elsewhere, Ether ETHUSD, +3.22% was down 2.9% at $419.96, Bitcoin Cash BCHUSD, +3.12% is trading down by 1.9%, at $754.80 and Litecoin LTCUSD, +2.96% is down 0.8% to $77.10.

Bitcoin futures finished lower Wednesday. The CME Group Inc.��s August contract BTCQ8, +1.46% finished the day down 2.4% at $7,545 and the comparable Cboe Global Markets Inc. contract XBTQ8, +1.73% �closed at $7,530, down 2.1%.

CryptoWatch: Check bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices, performance and market capitalization��all on one

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Aaron Hankin

Aaron Hankin is a MarketWatch reporter in New York who covers cryptocurrency and financial markets.

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Comment Quote References BTCUSD +176.00 +2.35% XRPUSD +0.01 +2.04% ETHUSD +13.19 +3.22% BCHUSD +23.20 +3.12% LTCUSD +2.25 +2.96% BTCQ8 +110.00 +1.46% XBTQ8 +130.00 +1.73% Show all references MarketWatch Partner Center Most Popular This is how much Elon Musk��s star is fading as Tesla��s earnings roll in

Bitcoin rises, shaking off SEC's denial of Winklevoss ETF

The world's largest cryptocurrency jumped back above $8,200 Friday after falling sharply following news that U.S. regulators denied an application by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss for the first-ever bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin dropped to a low of $7,798.70 Friday morning, about 6 percent below where it was trading before the news Thursday evening, according to data from CoinDesk. Hours later, it recovered to $8,211.87 as of 3:52 p.m. ET. The cryptocurrency had jumped to a two-month high earlier this week, partially on rumors of a looming exchange-traded fund approval.

This had been the second attempt by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, founders of crypto exchange Gemini, to list a cryptocurrency ETF on a regulated exchange. The Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to approve a bitcoin-based exchange traded fund, and on Thursday highlighted security, market manipulation and investor protection issues.

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, track an index or group of assets but trade like stocks. Bitcoin pundits say the approval of one could bring in a wave of new buyers, and because bitcoin has a fixed supply, push up prices. The fund would allow investors to have a stake in bitcoin without actually owning the cryptocurrency.

The announcement pours cold water on bitcoin's 20 percent rally, which was partially caused by rumors that another ETF proposed by VanEck would be approved within a month. The August deadline snowballed in online bitcoin communities with conflicting days being floated as targets for the SEC announcement.

show chapters SEC rejects Winklevoss bitcoin ETF proposal for the second time    6:17 PM ET Thu, 26 July 2018 | 01:35

One SEC Commissioner, Hester M. Peirce, was supportive of a cryptocurrency bitcoin ETF and published a dissent following the agency's decision.

"I am concerned that the Commission's approach undermines investor protection by precluding greater institutionalization of the bitcoin market," Peirce said in a statement. "More institutional participation would ameliorate many of the Commission's concerns with the bitcoin market that underlie its disapproval order."

The SEC declined to comment, but according to rules under the Dodd-Frank finance reforms, a likely date for an announcement would be Aug. 16. The agency needs to take action within 45 days of the publication of a proposal. In the case of the VanEck and SolidX bitcoin ETF, which was published for comment on July 2, that 45th day falls on Aug. 16.

Still, a real decision could be months away and the commission can delay or reject VanEck's proposal.

"I would be skeptical of an ETF being approved this year," said Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of BKCM. "Answers to the questions the SEC has aren't complete yet."